Ad spend slips 14.7% in October as confidence weakens, but 2025 remains positive

Australia’s media agency market remains marginally up for the calendar year (+0.2%) but slid sharply in October, with ad spend down 14.7% year-on-year as major categories pulled back investment.

Guideline SMI APAC managing director Jane Ractliffe said the data points to an “extremely cautious” market, with most of the damage coming from a small cluster of large advertisers. She said 90% of the decline came from just 10 categories, representing less than a quarter of all parent categories tracked.

Food, Produce & Dairy recorded the largest drop, down 29.5% in October and 24% for the financial year to date, stripping $48 million from the market over that period. Government spend also continued to contract, falling 31.2% in October and now 32.4% lower for the financial year. Communications and other major categories also contributed to the decline.

Ractliffe said the level of late digital bookings suggests the final October number may soften slightly as data is finalised, but the overall picture remains subdued. Insurance was the standout performer, rising 21% in October and 14% for the financial year to date, making it the second largest spending category for the month.

Every major media reported lower bookings in October. Digital fell 15.4%, video declined 14.9%, audio dropped 19.1% and outdoor was down 5.9%. News publishing fell 27.6%, magazines declined 31.3% and cinema contracted 33.3%. Streaming sites were one of the few bright spots, recording 1.9% growth for the month, while outdoor delivered the most resilient performance among the major channels.

Despite the soft October, the market remains ahead year-to-date, driven by outdoor up 8.9%, digital up 3.6%, magazines up slightly at 0.4% and cinema up 4.8%.