Ad market down 12% in July as post-Olympics lull bites, cinema a standout performer

Australia’s media agency market fell 12.2% year-on-year in July, as a post-Olympics lull, global uncertainty and softer government spend weighed on ad demand, according to the latest Guideline SMI figures.

The drop comes despite the market remaining in positive territory for the calendar year to date, with ad spend up 1.4% across the first seven months of 2025.

Guideline SMI APAC managing director Jane Ractliffe said the impact of last year’s Paris Olympics on comparables, along with tariff and geopolitical concerns, had dampened demand.

“We’re seeing the market remain incredibly short with the volatile global environment creating a lot of uncertainty and adding to the high degree of caution we’re seeing around committing to advertising campaigns,” she said.

Cinema was the standout performer in July, up 32.6% to record its biggest July on record. Outdoor grew modestly in sporting venues (+1.5%) and posted double-digit growth in street furniture, although the wider Outdoor market slipped 7.9%. Digital bookings fell 10.9% and TV was down 17.3%, both heavily affected by the absence of Olympics spend. Radio dropped 14.7% and print categories were also weak, with newspapers back 20.4% and magazines 18.8%.

Growth categories in July included insurance (+14.5%) and banks (+11.6%), while government spend fell 38.6% and auto brands continued to struggle (-17.8% in July, -11.5% YTD). Despite the softer July, Ractliffe noted forward bookings looked stronger.

“SMI’s forward pacings data suggests this trend is starting to abate as almost 80% of last August’s ad spend has already been committed, and that’s despite the month including by far the bulk of Paris Olympics ad spend.”

Year-to-date, outdoor remains up 11.1% and digital +4.1%, led by streaming video and programmatic. Cinema is also up 9.9% YTD, its highest since 2017.